A credible source and a pertinent topic

Discussion in 'Sidewinders Bar & Grille' started by ido1957, Jun 29, 2020 at 10:03 PM.

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  1. ido1957

    ido1957 Senior Stratmaster

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    This might be a bit of a read... less than 3 minutes... but a credible source, and a pertinent topic, and I post it because I love my friends and family:

    From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith:
    "As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.

    "Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous. First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

    "This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

    "Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.

    "You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.

    “Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain. In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

    "You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

    "Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.

    "My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures , my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."

    --Jonathan Smith, Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health (Lecturer) Yale University School TY, Laura Aikin
     
  2. fezz parka

    fezz parka Duke of DILLIGAF Strat-Talk Supporter

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    The Sledgehammer of Truth. :)

    It'll sure piss off Joe Freedom.
     
  3. DancesWithWeasels

    DancesWithWeasels Where there's a weasel there's a way Strat-Talk Supporter

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    This has been much on my mind lately. My mother died recently, and the family is considering the usual memorial service. My sister feels that if we don't do this soon then it likely won't happen at all. She is pushing for a service in the late July. I have suggested no physical service at all, but rather look to alternatives instead, an idea my sister strongly dislikes. I understand the desire to pay last respects together, but I feel that this is inappropriate and dangerous in the current environment. I am absolutely certain that if anyone were to become seriously ill as a result of such a service, my mother would be heart-broken.

    I feel obliged to continue to oppose a July memorial service. I simply don't believe it's in the interest of the community, my mother, or those who loved her.
     
  4. Engine Swap

    Engine Swap Strat-Talker

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    Hold my beer....IBTL
     
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  5. Lonn

    Lonn Mod Admin Staff Member Strat-Talk Supporter

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    Admin Post
    If only everyone would read this and actually believe it.
     
  6. longboard blues

    longboard blues Strat-O-Master

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    Just waiting for the "MuH fReEdOm" lot to chime in, with their knowledge of virology and epidimiology gained from infowars and breitbart, and to bellow "dO yOuR ReSeaRcH, sHeEpLe!".
     
  7. Antstrat

    Antstrat Senior Stratmaster

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    I like Strats.
     
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  8. Stratoman10

    Stratoman10 Dr. Stratster Strat-Talk Supporter

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  9. fezz parka

    fezz parka Duke of DILLIGAF Strat-Talk Supporter

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  10. circles

    circles Resident Pinball Enthusiast Strat-Talk Supporter

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    In before the beer... hold my lock...
     
  11. bluejazzoid

    bluejazzoid Strats Amore Strat-Talk Supporter

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    General George "Stray" Catton really likes this thread...

    [​IMG]

    ...but remains in Panzer, paw on trigger -- knows covidiots don't read.
     
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  12. bluejazzoid

    bluejazzoid Strats Amore Strat-Talk Supporter

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    Head-shaker: big crowd at a concert in east TN this past Sat. night:

    upload_2020-6-29_23-27-52.png

    Maybe they should start holding concerts like these in cemeteries. [​IMG]
     
  13. Biddlin

    Biddlin Senior Stratmaster

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    @DancesWithWeasels First of all, my condolences, I lost my mom 26 years ago and she's still the last one I say "goodnight" to.You might arrange a Skype with family the day and put together a nice tribute photo-album to share with family and friends. You could also have the service in a large open area with room for safe distancing, wear masks and keep it brief, 10 to 15 minutes and you should be OK. Hopefully your sister will see both the reason and the love in such a service. My thoughts are with you and your family. Be safe and be well.
     
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  14. Seamus OReally

    Seamus OReally Senior Stratmaster Silver Member

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    There’s a They Might Be Giants album, one of the albums they’ve done especially for children, called “Science Is Real.”
     
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  15. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Senior Stratmaster

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    Amen brother...
     
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  16. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Senior Stratmaster

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    Great outfit....John Henry was my favorite album but I've got all the kids stuff too....
     
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  17. StummerJoe

    StummerJoe Strat-O-Master

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    Or protests and riots... riot.jpg
     
  18. StummerJoe

    StummerJoe Strat-O-Master

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    riot.jpg riot.jpg 2016-07-10T033509Z_1_LYNXNPEC6904U_RTROPTP_4_USA-POLICE-PROTESTS-e1468249466476.jpg 23u4cu.jpg
    Very rude and inconsiderate.
     
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  19. ido1957

    ido1957 Senior Stratmaster

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    My condolences - just a suggestion for you based on what my wife did. My MIL died Jan 2 and my wife had her cremated and we kept the urn at home until July 15 (her birthday). We had a service and she was placed in one of those "above ground" things (can't recall what they are called atm). The point was the weather was wonderful, and out of town family could travel easier. This requires cremation although a burial could still apply.
     
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  20. thomquietwolf

    thomquietwolf Dr. Stratster Strat-Talk Supporter

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    Great great grand dad died in the mandan/Hidatsa epidemic
    Great grand father was shipped to Norway to Christianize

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