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Discussion in 'Other Guitar Discussion' started by Aqueix, Oct 13, 2021.
Unless you're a collector, great partscasters are still a value.
I just saw your edit. Isn't the point of taking part in a forum to weigh in on random topics? And seeing how this is a guitar forum, most topics here aren't exactly matters of global prominence. Anyway, I don't know why I'm posting another reply, maybe I'm just a masochist. It's just that you say it's unbecoming to weigh in, and yet you had to weigh in?
Housing. The real estate market … has knocked my pricing gizmo in my head askew..
It's inflation. Money is a supply/demand commodity.
In the 13 years since 2008 the national debt has almost tripled from 10 trillion to 28 trillion at the end of the 2021 fiscal year.
For comparison in the 13 years before that it doubled from 5 trillion in 1995 to 10 trillion in 2008.
So it doubled, then tripled, and very likely will quadruple in the next 13, if not sooner.
Almost all of this is financed by issuing securities which pay interest. That interest, in turn, is paid with tax revenues...(so far) and is currently 378 billion, or about 12% of the national budget, and currently about 10.2% of the Gross Domestic Product, which is the entire amount of goods and services the national economy produces.
What can't be covered by tax revenues is essentially paid for by printing more dollars. Supply/Demand.
Covid has knocked productivity way down as more money is being printed.
More money, chasing fewer goods = inflation.
Buy it now. It'll be more next year.
*(and when inflation is rising it's actually a good idea, assuming a stable cash flow, to buy it on credit. That's because as inflation goes up the dollar is worth less, in terms of what it will buy, so over time, you will be paying back the dollars borrowed with dollars that are worth even less than they are today. Seems counterintuitive I know. And takes some discipline, but that's how it works.)
**interesting factoid: In the 70's when inflation got up to 16%, based on a percentage increase, one of the most profitable items one could have bought up and stored to be sold later for a huge profit was.....
Toilet paper. It seems to all come down to toilet paper eventually...lol
Of course they will. When's the last time you've seen anyone drop prices across the board? Typically that will be up to the dealers who have excess inventory they need to clear prior to the release of newer models or when their next allotments are being shipped.
Lumber costs have decreased somewhat but IMHO labor/benefit costs will only trend higher. The entire economy is being reworked due to COVID. It's broken the stranglehold businesses had on their labor costs. Employees are looking for better jobs paying more and they're finding them. Others will need to step up.
I expect to see a long overdue inflation cycle brought on by higher wages and benefits cost which we'll all need to adjust to. It's already happened in many areas already. The recession beginning in 2008 set the stage for a decade of abnormally low interest rates and controlled inflation that's coming to an end.
My suggestion is buy a high quality guitar that you like. Prices are never going to go down in the new guitar market. Or buy used and try to get a bargain.
I have a 40 year old Strat that still plays well (caveat - just had it refretted).
I'm weighing in on not weighing in.
That's my current mission.
Basically, everyone just shut up.
Lol, point taken
I’m working on it.
Your friend is right.
See my post #24.
All that aside, there will always be people capitalizing on the misfortunes of others.
They're probably the victims of their own materials & supply chain. I see the specs change for the body woods. Squier going to Poplar for a lot of models, used to be Basswood. Then the Rosewood ban back in 2017 and everyone shifted to Indian Laurel. So fuel prices, increased labor, blah-blah-blah, yada-yada-yada and a Squier Bullet is now $ 180-200. Oh well, there are a lot of guitars that are competition at the Squier level these days.
Quickly becoming my favorite guitars...mix 'em, match 'em, cheap way to get quality parts and build what you like.
When was the last time you saw them lower prices?
See the other article about 16 million new guitar players in the last two years. In business, when you can't keep up with demand, you raise prices or expand operations. Probably not a lot of incentive to expand when everyone perceives this as a temporary demand increase.
Wait a year or two, those instruments will flood the market, things will go back to normal.
My opinion is that I have enough guitars to last the rest of my life, and I'm not really planning on buying more. The gear I have is good stuff, I'm totally happy with it. I don't feel like there is anything out there that offers me anything that I just gotta have.
I figure my money will be better spent on maintaining the gear I already have for years to come, instead of chasing the rabbit. And My time will be better spent concentrating on further development of my skills as a musician.
Who knows, I may buy a new pedal here or there, or try some new pickups now and then, but on the whole, I don't foresee any major gear purchases in the future.
In an odd turnabout, the post you responded to has an opinion about having opinions.
Sometimes I'm the same way. Then I'll look around out of boredom and get sucked into it!
That analysis of demand and increased production/expansion is right. Fender has actually expanded, so they're positioned well.
Also true that a lot of those 16 million will be selling off guitars purchased in a few years and increase the supply, but I don't think it's go to back to anything.
It will stop the increases, but it won't lower prices from wherever they are when that happens, not by much anyway. So a new normal at best.