How long until the used market returns to normal?

Discussion in 'Other Guitar Discussion' started by SeventySevenStrat, Sep 1, 2021.

  1. Exhead

    Exhead Senior Stratmaster

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    My listings now.

    https://reno.craigslist.org/msg/d/sparks-2003-cii-cxs-se-squier/7370548840.html
    https://reno.craigslist.org/msg/d/sparks-2009-ibanez-a100e-bk-1201/7370527996.html
    https://reno.craigslist.org/msg/d/sparks-2019-indio-helix-flamed-maple/7374207168.html
    https://reno.craigslist.org/msg/d/sparks-2014-bc-rich-villain-plot-vlpsbw/7374203131.html
    https://reno.craigslist.org/msg/d/sparks-2008-cort-vx-2v-svm-guitar-with/7374006910.html

    I list on how it plays, sounds, the set up I gave it and the market vakue currently. Someone pays my proce eventually that loves the guitar.

    Sold a 2005 CXS SE Tobacco Burst yesterday for $180 and the guy was blown away at what he got for the money. It was gleaming from head to toe in the sunlight, he kept looking at it like he could not believe he it was so low and it the shape it was in. He also used my Rushhead headphone amp and headphones to test it and was all smiles when he heard it and said "Yeah that's it." Elbow grease, spare parts and good photos = firm price and happy customers.

    IMG_8333.JPG IMG_8328.JPG IMG_8334.JPG
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2021
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  2. arct

    arct Strat-O-Master

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    I moved out 5 giggers, down to 4 now. Them 5 went out for another amp and a small cab, and cash. Really good cash. I wish I had more stuff to unload.

    rct
     
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  3. Whitster

    Whitster Strat-Talk Member

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    The thing about the question in this thread is that it is unanswerable. NOBODY knows. I've been an investor in several markets, to include guitars, and if there is one thing I have learned it is that people who try to time the market or think they can predict when a (in this case - bull) market will end or reverse - lose. of COURSE they can get lucky in the short term, etc. just like you can flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row - outlier events happen as do coincidences.. and yes, you can look at market factors to try to make educated assessments as to relative risk of continued climb vs. stagnation vs. regression to mean etc. but I can't stress this enough - NOBODY knows. And despite the fact I am somewhat of a contrarian - which has worked well for me.. iow when everybody is SCREAMING to do one thing and you can't lose - RUN AWAY AS FAST AS YOU CAN OR if everybody is saying investment X sucks and so 2000 and late... im looking hard at that product and seeing to what extent it is emotion and to what extent its based on valid factors... markets are inefficient and subject to psychology - greed, fear (fear of missing out, fear of losing etc.). Also, the prices you see people ASKING for when they sell are not neccessarily the prices they are getting. You have to look at transacted prices, not "asks". Asks represent sentiment, but they don't represent reality of sales prices - price is opinion, and sales happen when two opinions meet. I've seen countless guitars offered at ludicrous prices, taken down, relisted at ludicrous price, etc. ... heck,. one guy has been trying to sell the same Gretsch on CL for YEARS. I even contacted him and offered him a fair price but he pulled the "I just want to break even" nonsense. The market doesn't care what you bought it for.. when you are trying to sell it. Does supply matter? Sure, but it's hardly the only factor. Right now, the vintage market (and certain segments thereof) is going bonkers.. but the supply of *given guitar* made in *given year* is a constant ... although the number ON the market can fluctuate. It's fun to speculate --- as people are doing in this thread --- But I can't stress enough it's just bald speculation... there are too many factors (many unknown to the speculator or that are extremely chaotic) to have any confidence. I've even heard some people confidently state that prices will ONLY keep going up from here and that there is no possibility of a pullback (sigh...) . Imo, the best course of action is going with the "flow". ... it's a seller's market so unless you find the aberrant sweet deal (and yes, you can still find them)... increasing your personal inventory right now is suboptimal ... unless there are compelling reasons to do so.. e.g you are going on tour and NEED product X for your job. Otoh, if you've invested in a bunch of guitars while the market was much lower (as it has been for some time)... well offering them up to the hordes ... including the "greater fools" is a good idea. again, just my opinion, but I'd emphasize I make NO predictions, I only comment on where the market IS, where it has been and how markets historically act. and I'll end with this.. EVERY TIME in EVERY MARKET (I don't care if it's soybeans, tulips, gold, tech stocks, or whatever) when you have a strong bull market you will have people say "It's different this time (insert rationale here)..."... It's NOT and it NEVER is. So, the ones saying THIS time you might as well buy because prices are never going down and thus there is no risk etc. ... has no idea what they are talking about

    Excuse this long winded screed - this is a topic I have strong opinions on :)
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2021
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  4. Antstrat

    Antstrat Most Honored Senior Member

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  5. nickmsmith

    nickmsmith Dr. Stratster

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  6. Packrat

    Packrat Strat-Talker

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    The cost of shipping has risen substantially, and that has to be figured in. The fees and taxes on Reverb and EBay are substantial. So to recap your investment you have to tweek somewhere. At the same time the bigger players still seem to be able to ship for a lower cost. It is way harder to sell now then it was in the past.
    If you want to get back close to what you paid you generally must have gotten a great deal on the first place. Or a highly desirable/rarer instrument.
     
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  7. ibdrkn1

    ibdrkn1 Senior Stratmaster

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    IMO it's likely there will be a drop below pre-pandemic prices for a bit. A lot of stuff was purchased when people had free time. Now there's less free time and I suspect a lot will be flooding the market for a little while.
     
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  8. Exhead

    Exhead Senior Stratmaster

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    Chomping at the bit.
     
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  9. Handsome McClane

    Handsome McClane Senior Stratmaster Silver Member

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    I don't see much more out there, but I've had an amp for sale for a few weeks and last year I was selling stuff in hours. Things definitely slowing down. Not sure prices are coming down though.
     
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  10. circles

    circles Resident Pinball Enthusiast

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    Paragraph breaks are your friend.

    Maybe I will be able to pickup Gilmours' Black Strat for peanuts as soon as someone dumps it at a pawn shop. The only question is: which shop?
     
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  11. ibdrkn1

    ibdrkn1 Senior Stratmaster

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    Typically prices do drop when there's a lot for sale and not many buyers. It's going to be a tough time to be a seller for a little while I think.
     
  12. Chipss36

    Chipss36 Strat-O-Master

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    So I had a nabor, asking me to teach a grandkid, I really do not want any students, so of course, “yes I will teach her” came out of my mouth before my brain caught up.
    said we would set something up…
    Few weeks pass. She came by, told me the kid sold the guitar.

    I bet this is happening a lot!

    I am relieved I don’t have to do a theory deep dive, but it would be good for me, I just kinda dread it,
    Or learn baby shark, or transcribe “WAP” and teach it or whatever kids like now adays…??


    would rather tackle learning a new/old song I like.

    I bet a gear dump will start and continue for a few years after this stuck at home deal fades away.

    I also see a pretty huge gear dump happening as boomers die off..
    Sorry to say, and I am one of them.
    Just a brutal truth.

    The new generations for the most part have zero interest in musical instruments.

    I really think a huge paradigm shift will happen, and prices will drop like crazy….about 10 years or so.
    Music instruments generally relics of the past.

    I sure hope I am wrong on this.
     
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  13. Stratoskater

    Stratoskater Fuzz Meister General

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    Should be the 6th Tuesday of Junetober or the 9th Saturday of Maytember.
     
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  14. Bakelite1

    Bakelite1 Strat-Talker

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    Keep in mind the dollar's buying power has diminished sharply in the past 6-8 years. A dollar today is like sixty cents in 2014. It's difficult to set because it isn't being widely reported.
     
  15. balston11

    balston11 Senior Stratmaster Silver Member

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    It amazes me that Ebay sellers don't learn; prices are in many cases ridiculous and nothing much is selling. I see the same guitars listed again and again by Ebay's automatic relisting system. Admittedly the seller doesn't need to do anything and can wait in hope, but if people genuinely want to sell the guitar they are not going to.
    If market forces work at all there is bound to be a correction at some stage.
     
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  16. train

    train Worlds largest private army Silver Member

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    A lot of people around here believe we will have another shut down this winter early spring . If so the guitar is coming back out and the wife is loading the shotgun
     
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  17. Ebidis

    Ebidis Providing the world with flat bends since 1985

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    If I could see into the future like that, I'd be a wealthy man.
     
  18. Jwright72

    Jwright72 New Member!

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    Hey man, I feel you. The high prices on used guitars has been painful for months. Good news, though. Prices are coming down. I’ve been watching daily for quite a while. Many used American Strats on Reverb for example, have been marked down several times and several hundred dollars. I got my dream Strat for just over $1,000, a steal at the time, and now I could do better. I can also easily find MIM Strats, locally on FB marketplace as well as Reverb, for $500 or less!
     
  19. Jwright72

    Jwright72 New Member!

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    LOL.
     
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  20. Jwright72

    Jwright72 New Member!

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    Tangential comment about Reverb. I continue to purchase on Reverb because I value the community. I have had so many positive experiences with sellers and I have a high level of confidence in them, that they are trustworthy and they know and love guitars. I have not looked in m Etsy at all, but will check them out. Thanks for the tip!