How long until the used market returns to normal?

Discussion in 'Other Guitar Discussion' started by SeventySevenStrat, Sep 1, 2021.

  1. wjsb316

    wjsb316 Strat-Talker

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    5 years min
     
  2. dbluesmi

    dbluesmi Strat-Talk Member

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    Made the mistake of waiting for housing prices to drop on desirable vacation home areas in my state in 2008… never happened… prices just stopped going up. I don’t think you’re gonna see prices “drop” much. Yes, people who are fishing with high prices due to the hot market will eventually pull their listings if they don’t hook a buyer. Due to high demand, many people decided to list gear they probably wouldn’t have otherwise IF they could get a high price. BUT generally, inflation has kicked in all across our economy due to material/labor cost increases…. New Fender MIM guitars are routinely over $1k now - that’s not going to change. Therefore, used gear prices will be slightly less than what you can get an equivalent NEW model for. Lesson: if you want to buy something, waiting isn’t probably going to work. Also, many more players in the market now who probably are to going to completely drop guitar as a hobby so more competition might mean prices aren’t going to drop - they might only stabilize. Stop thinking you’re gonna find decent $300 MIM Stratocaster's like we did a year or two ago. Waiting for something you HOPE will happen isn’t a good strategy… maybe paying an extra $100 for the guitar you want now is smart since there is no way of knowing what will happen… and.. you will get it that much sooner and be playing it instead of spending all your time watching prices continue to go up … that doesn’t mean being prey for people fishing for prices that make no sense … but we aren’t going backwards - stop hoping for finding that $250 used MIM you saw three years ago. It’s a new world… time to stop waiting for the “good ol’ days” to return… they never do.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2021
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  3. dirocyn

    dirocyn Most Honored Senior Member

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    Gen-x will still buy your gear.

    Instruments are a luxury. They take up space, and you can only use them if you have spare time. You have to have a steady income and be secure in your housing too. Homeless people can't hang on to a guitar, even if they can make money busking. First freezing night and they will trade away anything they've got for a hotel room.

    The way wages haven't risen, and the way rent has...few 20-somethings can afford to enter the guitar market. Blame it on landlords, blame it on the shrinking middle class. And when these kids finally get secure enough to pursue a hobby, they will buy a Squier or something else cheap. I didn't buy my first Fender until after 45.
     
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  4. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Dr. Stratster

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    My comments on Reverb had nothing to do with the buyers or sellers particularly, but more with the administration of the site, which was bought last year, and is now run by Etsy.

    If you want to look at alternative sites, I'm currently exploring Sweetwater's Used Gear Marketplace, which doesn't seem to have the name recognition of Reverb and is not heavily promoted. Something which may or may not change one way or the other now that equity investors have bought a large chunk of Sweetwater.
     
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  5. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Dr. Stratster

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    I don't know if your analyses is correct or not, but if one assumes it is, then a path forward for some buyers might be took at some of the lesser known offering from other manufacturers which sell for significantly less than Fenders.

    There are smaller, ( and even some larger, manufacturers who are selling guitars for significantly less with materials and QC that are close, if not equal to, and in some cases even better, than Fenders lower priced offerings.

    Not sure it's a "new world" in any respects. It's still a cyclical one. But for those who never lived in times of high inflation it will certainly seem like one.

    A combination of factors, including the pandemic, failure to punish and even to reward economic crimes and malfeasance, and just plain old mismanagement and corruption of the economic system has led to a situation the wholesale printing of fiat will inevitably lead to inflation. It's been held at bay by keeping wages, in real terms, at 1970's levels, but now we're seeing millions of jobs available and going begging while there are tons of people out of work.

    Schools are offering signing bonuses, restaurants can't keep employees. For the first time in my memory, or at least recently, it's a seller's market for labor.

    It's a paradigm shift in values, made up of many parts: people revaluing what's an important use of or the value of their time, more jobs chasing less labor, people who got burned by Wall Street and whose retirement accounts have finally gone back up due to the propping up of the markets by giving them money at virtually 0% for a decade are cashing out while the getting is good,...and more.

    Bottom line is wages will finally go up and those wages will be chasing fewer goods due to supply line interruptions, shutdowns and other pandemic, and climate, related effects. More money chasing fewer goods also equals price inflation. You can't print your way out of this forever, so the pendulum is beginning it's swing the other way.

    It's only a new world if you haven't seen it swing back and forth before. Or if you're not a student of history.
     
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  6. Scott Baxendale

    Scott Baxendale Senior Stratmaster Gold Supporting Member

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    I’ve been dealing in used guitars since the 70’s, what would “normal” even be?
     
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  7. bgmacaw

    bgmacaw Strat-O-Master

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    While used prices will stabilize, you won't see prices returning to 2018-29 levels due to inflation and ongoing supply chain issues. This increases the price and decreases the availability of new guitars, making used ones more in demand.
     
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  8. train

    train Worlds largest private army Silver Member

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    Have we noticed that a 3000 dollar shipping container now cost 22,000 dollars . We are wasting are time speculating .
     
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  9. PCollen

    PCollen Senior Stratmaster Silver Member

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    Make your offers and, if not accepted, put it on your watch list and move on. I agree prices are typically ridiculous even for the most common and mediocre gear. Cash is king, and the Buyers just have to wait things out for the Sellers to come back to reality. If you don't NEED it, let some other fool take the hit.
     
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  10. PCollen

    PCollen Senior Stratmaster Silver Member

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    There are PLENTY of new guitars available from plenty of sources. There is no supply issues, and you can fight with your wallet on the price issues.
     
  11. Brucegomb

    Brucegomb Strat-Talker

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    Not every sale on there is of the charts, you just have to ignore those "1982 pickguard" for $600 lol
     
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  12. Brucegomb

    Brucegomb Strat-Talker

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    The market has made a permanent ship upwards and this is due to many reasons. This does not cover the ridiculous prices asked by SOME people on Reverb (not all of them are nuts), I picked up an incredible 70's reissue Vintera for a great price in mint condition so they aren't all bad.

    Reasons for market increase:
    Base cost of an MIM has jumped at least $150 dollars, so now to get a "Deal" on the new strat they are priced at $649 instead of $499.
    Demand is up in general. Players keep adding to their collection (guilty) and new players are buying those strats they always wanted.
    People stuck at home playing and practicing more
    Models with Rosewood are worth more now because that wood is no longer used on base new strats.

    The 3rd one will level off, the first 2 won't so the general uptick is here to stay. Used Strats which used to be $300-$375 are now more like $425 - $525ish for the base model used. Of course, special editions and up models of MIM cost more.
     
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  13. tptmnc

    tptmnc Strat-Talk Member

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    First thing to do with a Reverb price on used items is deduct 25% just to get it in the reasonable range. Then make a reasonable offer, 5-15% below that depending on the item. If the seller is serious about making a sale he will counter. If he doesn't, move on unless you have to have it. The
    negotiation process can continue.
     
  14. drp146

    drp146 Strat-Talker

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    Thanks Baelzebub, I didn't know Sweetwater had a used gear marketplace.
     
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  15. drp146

    drp146 Strat-Talker

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    I happen to think you're spot on with your analysis.
     
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  16. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Dr. Stratster

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    Spread the word... I think a lot more people would use it if they knew.
     
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  17. Brucegomb

    Brucegomb Strat-Talker

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    I used it once and the seller never replied after 3 emails
     
  18. Brucegomb

    Brucegomb Strat-Talker

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    The ROCK star and Mega bands are dead. There is no CD market. Music is at a point it needs something big to turn it into a new direction but right now it's just languishing. The only people making big money is "Old" money in royalties and manufactured pop stars. What's left is the music working class (the rest of us), and wanna be musicians. Sites like Spotify and such are the new middle men to an uncaring public. Songs only live a brief life span before they disappear into a puff of bits in the internet either, if anyone even hears them at all.

    But writing music and playing stratocasters is fun!!!!

    Me thinks it's time to add another one and help push up the used price of them ;-)
     
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  19. Dik Ellis

    Dik Ellis Strat-Talk Member

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    I have downsized my Guitar and Amp collection. Keeping what I have left (some very nice gear). Still hooked on pedals, though.;)
     
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  20. Baelzebub

    Baelzebub Dr. Stratster

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    I never understood sellers who don't respond. I respond to anyone who takes the time, no matter how ridiculous the offer or inane the question. You have to engage to make a sale. I've had that happen a lot on CL.

    I usually shoot them a 2nd one asking them how they expect to sell it if they don't respond and when that goes unanswered I pull up all their listings, and flag them so they don't clutter up my screen and waste my time.

    And thanks for the input. I'm seeking any and all since I'm still evaluating it. Can't be any worse than CL, the listing process is easy and there's no fees. I'm not in a crush to sell anything so it's a good time to look it over and see if it might be something useful.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2021
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