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Stu78

Senior Stratmaster
Apr 20, 2019
1,618
Scotland
I’ve studied history, I am a historian. I would say I know a thing or two about European history especially and I always thought I was able to understand Putin and his actions, while definitely not agreeing with them. But ever since this war has started, with each passing day, it’s harder ti believe he hasn’t simply lost his mind. This is waaaaay different from any other aggression from Russia.
I also studied history and like you i'm perplexed by Putins behaviour recently. I think he has miscalculated in that he thought he was dealing with a "country" with a small less equipped army when in fact the is dealing with a "nation" of 40 million people united against him.
 
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RobZ69

Senior Stratmaster
Apr 22, 2017
2,524
The Netherlands
I also studied history and like you i'm perplexed by Putins behaviour recently. I think he has miscalculated in that he thought he is dealing with a "country" with a small less equipped army when in fact the is dealing with a "nation" of 40 million people united against him.
I think he genuinely thought the people would welcome the Russian forces. He's been in sycophant echo-chamber.

I firmly believe this signals the end of his reign and that some of his generals will pull the plug on him at a certain point in time.
 

RobZ69

Senior Stratmaster
Apr 22, 2017
2,524
The Netherlands
Your right, and that should be remembered. Their being jailed for their protests. Unfortunately for their governmnent we live in the digital age and they can't hide what's happening from their own people like they once perhaps could.
Many of the older Russian generation still rely on state media only. They haven't heard a single fact in the last decade.
 

Stu78

Senior Stratmaster
Apr 20, 2019
1,618
Scotland
I think he genuinely thought the people would welcome the Russian forces. He's been in sycophant echo-chamber.

I firmly believe this signals the end of his reign and that some of his generals will pull the plug on him at a certain point in time.
Well the oligarchs have already started breaking ranks so here's hoping the Generals do the same. I fear ultimately though it will be left to the Russian people to get rid of him.
 

Oldboy

Senior Stratmaster
May 17, 2009
1,548
Land Of 1000 Dances
Can anyone translate? I'm really curious about this one!

ERUW4TYWAAEC2jA
 

crankmeister

Most Honored Senior Member
Jul 9, 2020
5,664
Republic of Gilead
Actually, it hasn't been latent. The Ukrainians have already been fighting an 8 year war in the east against Russian loyalists who have been armed by the Russians. This is why the Ukrainian army does so well against the Russian forces. They have had years of practice.

"Some 13,000 people have been killed, a quarter of them civilians, and as many as 30,000 wounded in the war in eastern Ukraine since it broke out in April 2014, the United Nations says."

https://www.rferl.org/a/death-toll-...-conflict-says-un-rights-office/29791647.html
Well, ok, more than latent. But I meant going back to the Cold War days and the process of perestroika. Eastern Ukraine has been “Russified” for a long time and what’s been happening over the past decade is not surprising. Jeffrey Sachs and company were incapable when it came to dealing with these deep-seeded differences in the 1990s (or maybe too eager to call it a “mission accomplished”?) and now here we are.
 

Geoff06

Strat-Talker
Nov 15, 2021
372
Wisconsin
It's good to hear from some who are personally affected by this. My thoughts and much prayer are with and for you. This is a good discussion. Thank you all.

I didn't realize we had any historians here. That's awesome. I'm quite "pattern-oriented" and it's interesting, terrifying, eye-opening and encouraging seeing various world events through the lens of historical knowledge. I appreciate your responses, which seem to bolster the statements I've come across. I hadn't paid a lot of attention to Putin's actions prior to the past few years.
 

muttonbuster

Strat-O-Master
Nov 14, 2020
969
República de Cantaloupia
There’s been a latent civil tension between eastern and western Ukraine for decades that Putin is exploiting. And now he has Belarus as an ally to Ukraine’s north.

I don’t know why anyone would sit back and wonder why/what Putin is doing. It’s a land and resource grab, it’s about territory and stuff same as any war ever. The only question is whether it’s going to be all of Ukraine this time or just another creep westward. And how willing are the other powers to establish economic sanctions that have teeth.
I sure wonder about it. Any semi decent military strategist could have told him, "No, Vlad, this is not Georgia. Ukraine has sizeable forces, and you will not get a cakewalk if you go beyond Donbas." Now he's gotten himself into a situation that if he wants the whole enchilada and this drags on for six months, Russia will look like the Soviet Union did in 1989: mired in a money pit of a war with huge cracks in the foundation. I don't think the Russian citizens are going to put up with being dialed back to a Soviet lifestyle. I guess it's not surprising given the First Chechen War for sure, and even the Georgian War and Second Chechen War to some extent. The incompetent, lightbulb eating yesmen leadership in the post Soviet Russian Army have a penchant for severely underestimating their adversary.
 
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RobZ69

Senior Stratmaster
Apr 22, 2017
2,524
The Netherlands
Well, ok, more than latent. But I meant going back to the Cold War days and the process of perestroika. Eastern Ukraine has been “Russified” for a long time and what’s been happening over the past decade is not surprising. Jeffrey Sachs and company were incapable when it came to dealing with these deep-seeded differences in the 1990s (or maybe too eager to call it a “mission accomplished”?) and now here we are.
I'm not sure what message you are trying to convey here exactly, nor do I remember clearly who this Sachs was, but it seems to me the Ukrainians, Europe and NATO were doing ok-ish dealing with these differences until a certain Russian president decided to intervene and start to (at first covertly) destabilize a sovereign neighboring county, then shoot down a passenger airliner and now just blatantly invade it.
 
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muttonbuster

Strat-O-Master
Nov 14, 2020
969
República de Cantaloupia
If the rumors are true that in the last 12 hours Russians have started actually using thermobaric bombs in Ukraine, then something needs to be done immediately. That's just as horrific as it can possibly get.
Not surprised at all that he's resorting to that. Unless this wraps up very quickly, he's going to lose the handle on the Russian public. This is just as tragic for the mothers of the Russian soldiers not knowing if their son is coming back, and having to call a Ukrainian hotline to find out. 5,300 casualties for the Russians in five days?! Sheesh, even if that number is half accurate, that's worse than the Soviet's worst week in Afghanistan. What is Putin going to do? Start locking up the families of his own soldiers to keep them from voicing their dissent? The guy is just nuts.
 
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